World champions Argentina national football team travel to Santiago to face a floundering Chile side on June 5, 2025 – a clash that could see Lionel Messi make his first appearance in seven months and a comfortable 0‑2 victory for the South American heavyweights.
Background to the South American Qualifying Campaign
The CONMEBOL 2026 World Cup Qualifying South America has turned into a story of two extremes. Argentina, under Lionel Scaloni, clinched an early ticket in March 2025 after a ruthless 4‑1 demolition of Brazil, climbing to an eight‑point lead at the top of the table with a 10‑1‑3 record.
Conversely, Chile’s campaign has been a descent into the bottom‑of‑the‑table abyss. With only two wins from fourteen matches (2‑4‑8), they sit ten points shy of automatic qualification and five points behind Venezuela’s playoff slot. The result is a third successive failure to reach a World Cup – a fate that hasn’t been seen since the current qualifying format began.
Current Form and Stakes for Argentina and Chile
Argentina’s dominance is reflected in the numbers: 31 points, a goal difference of +24, and a squad brimming with World Cup experience. Their next challenge after the Chile game is a crucial showdown with Colombia in Buenos Aires, where they will fine‑tune tactics ahead of the title defence.
Chile, meanwhile, is scrambling. Their last meeting with Argentina ended in a 3‑0 thrashing, and they have scored just nine goals in the entire qualifying round. A win would be a tiny lifeline, but even a draw would likely cement their fate as the bottom‑placed team.
Predicted Lineups and Key Players
According to the latest scouting reports, Argentina will likely field a 4‑3‑3 with Emiliano Martínez in goal, full‑backs Nahuel Molina and Nicolás Tagliafico, and a central pairing of Cristian Romero and Nicolás Otamendi. The midfield trio of Rodrigo De Paul, Enzo Fernández and Leandro Paredes will provide the engine, while the attack features Messi, Lautaro Martínez, and Julián Álvarez.
Chile’s probable eleven includes seasoned defender Gary Medel at the back, with a midfield anchored by Erick Pulgar and Arturo Vidal trying to shield a modest forward line led by Alexis Sánchez, now in the twilight of his career. The Chilean side will need to rely on set‑pieces and counter‑attacks to threaten Argentina’s high line.
Betting Odds and Expert Predictions
- Argentina: -135 moneyline
- Chile: +425 moneyline
- Draw: +260
- Over/Under 2.5 goals: Over +115, Under -145
Sports Mole, Action Network and several South American pundits all predict a 0‑2 win for Argentina. The consensus is that Argentina can play with “no pressure” now that their World Cup berth is secured, while Chile will likely be “levels below” their opponents.
What Messi’s Potential Return Means
If Messi steps onto the pitch, it will be his first cap since the March Brazil match, where he missed the action due to a lingering thigh issue. At 38, he’s defied age expectations, but his minutes are being managed cautiously. A solid performance could add a morale boost for Argentina and give Messi a final platform before the 2026 World Cup, where he hopes to become the first player to win three titles.
For Chile, facing a Messi‑led attack is a psychological hurdle. Their defensive organization will be tested, and any lapse could turn into a quick goal – a scenario that has haunted them all qualifying season.
Looking Ahead: Future Implications
Argentina’s victory will cement their reputation as the nation to beat and provide vital sharpness before the upcoming duel with Colombia. It also offers Scaloni a chance to rotate squad members and experiment with formations without jeopardising points.
Chile’s loss will likely confirm their slide to the bottom, prompting calls for a managerial overhaul and a re‑evaluation of the generation that once lifted the Copa América in 2015 and 2016. The federation may look toward a long‑term rebuilding plan, perhaps focusing on the younger talents who have yet to make a mark on the senior stage.
Key Facts
- Match date: Thursday, June 5, 2025, 9:00 pm EDT
- Venue: Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Santiago, Chile
- Argentina’s record: 10‑1‑3 (31 points)
- Chile’s record: 2‑4‑8 (10 points)
- Predicted score: Argentina 2, Chile 0
Frequently Asked Questions
How likely is Lionel Messi to play against Chile?
Messi has been cleared after a seven‑month layoff and is expected to be in the squad. Coach Scaloni has hinted he could start, but the decision will hinge on his fitness during the final training session on June 4.
What does a win mean for Argentina’s World Cup preparations?
A victory lets Argentina fine‑tune tactics and keep momentum heading into a decisive clash with Colombia. It also gives Scaloni a chance to test squad depth ahead of the tournament in the United States and Canada.
Can Chile still qualify for the 2026 World Cup?
Mathematically, Chile could still climb to the inter‑continental playoff spot if they win remaining matches and rivals drop points. Realistically, they need at least four straight wins and help from Venezuela and Colombia to stay afloat.
What are the betting markets saying about this game?
Bookmakers favor Argentina at -135, with Chile listed at +425. The over/under 2.5 goals line leans toward under, reflecting expectations of a tight, low‑scoring affair despite Argentina’s attacking firepower.
How does this match fit into the larger CONMEBOL qualifying story?
It pits the table‑topping, already‑qualified champions against the league’s cellar‑dwellers. The result will likely seal Chile’s fate while offering Argentina a low‑stakes environment to experiment before the final qualifying push.
